Week 16 Start'em/Sit'em

Dec 23, 2020 at 10:12 pm ET

This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FFN. FFN rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, or Davante Adams. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

It's Championship Weekend! Good luck!

Start 'em Jalen Hurts (PHI, QB)
Ranked 7th this week on FFN is Jalen Hurts fresh off a monster 338 yards and 3 touchdowns passing while adding 63 yards and a score on the ground last week. It's interesting to see how other running QBs have fared against Dallas this year. Lamar Jackson: 25 points. Kyler Murray: 28 points. Russell Wilson: 34 points. Keep Hurts in your lineup and he should help put a championship under the Christmas tree.
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7th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Baker Mayfield (CLE, QB)
Ranked just outside our Top 12 (#13) is Baker Mayfield who could easily finish as a QB1 against a Jacksonville secondary that has given up just over 25 fantasy points each week to quarterbacks. ESPN's Field Yates pointed out that Baker is the 3rd-highest scoring QB over the past month. Look for Mayfield to come out throwing against the Men in Green.
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4th Most Pts to QB
Start 'em Tom Brady (TB, QB)
Looking at Brady's production totals over the past eight weeks, he seems to have a big game consistently followed by a drop in points. He's coming off a big game last week, so conventional wisdom suggests that he'll regress. We don't think so. The Lions present such an interesting matchup for the fantasy playoffs. They've given up at least 30 fantasy points in three of their last four contests.
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3rd Most Pts to QB
Start 'em David Montgomery (CHI, RB)
David Montgomery comes into our championship week rankings at #6 against a Jacksonville defense that has been very generous to running backs this season. Montgomery has certainly gotten the workload lately seeing 32 carries last week with Cordarrelle Patterson out. It doesn't really matter if Patterson plays in this one, because Montgomery has solidified his role as an RB1 in a favorable matchup.
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4th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Leonard Fournette (TB, RB)
Leonard Fournette has not been an efficient runner this year averaging 3.9 yards/carry, but he did make two trips to the endzone last week in a paper-tough matchup. Whether it's Fournette or RoJo (unlikely) leading the backfield this week, the matchup simply doesn't get any better. No other team gives up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Lions putting Fournette at #8 in our PPR rankings.
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Most pts to RB
Start 'em Miles Sanders (PHI, RB)
Fantasy owners were rightfully cautious with Sanders last week. He was fresh off a monster game, and owners were concerned that he wouldn't be able to repeat against another tough defense. He didn't. Fortunately, he'll get to end the fantasy year on a high note facing a Dallas defense that has surrendered the 6th-most fantasy points.
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6th Most Pts to RB
Start 'em Antonio Brown (TB, WR)
AJ Green. Dez Bryant. Alshon Jeffery. We've seen a resurgence of comeback receivers lately, so let's stick with that theme here. Antonio Brown - once the #1 overall fantasy pick - has been an average player this year, but a matchup with the Lions is exactly what he needs to be a solid WR3/Flex option for you this week. Brady seems to be favoring him lately including a fantastic 5-93-1 stat line last week. This is a great matchup for all of the Bucs' receivers.
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6th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Brandon Aiyuk (SF, WR)
Ranked 13th among all receivers this week is Brandon Aiyuk whose volume makes him a must-start player for the fantasy championship. Over his last five games, he has averaged an amazing 12.4 targets per game. He's also managed to find the endzone in four of those five games. Aiyuk is a high-end WR2 that could finish as a WR1.
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13th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Marvin Jones (DET, WR)
Kenny Golladay hasn't practiced since before Thanksgiving, and while the team hasn't officially placed him on IR, he's effectively done for fantasy owners. That's good news for Marvin Jones who has flourished in his absence averaging 11 targets over the last four games. He's also topped 100 yards and found the endzone in two of those four games. The Bucs have been generous to wide receivers this year including giving up 32 points to Calvin Ridley last week.
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9th Most Pts to WR
Start 'em Logan Thomas (WAS, TE)
Logan Thomas topped 100 yards for the first time last week and saw a whopping 15 targets. He's led the team in targets over the past three weeks and we'd expect that trend to continue against a Panthers defense that has given up the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends on the year. Another double-digit fantasy day should help owners lock up their championship.
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11th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em TJ Hockenson (DET, TE)
While Hockenson didn't do much of anything last week, he has a real shot to finish the year as a Top 5 Tight End. The Bucs give up the 10th-most fantasy points to the position including 12 points to Hayden Hurst last week and 16 points to Irv Smith the week prior. Hockensen's floor is relatively safe in this one, but his ceiling potential is what we're hoping he'll deliver.
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10th Most Pts to TE
Start 'em Cleveland Browns (CLE, DEF)
Nobody gives up more fantasy points to Defense/Special Teams than the Jets. The Jets rank dead last in multiple offensive categories including total yards, points, first downs, passing yards, and offensive snaps per game. They rank last in time of possession as well. Look for Cleveland to rack up the fantasy points.
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Most pts to DEF
Start 'em Wil Lutz (NO, K)
Wil Lutz should help your fantasy team this week facing a Vikings defense that has been quite generous to kickers this season giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points to them. Last week Cairo Santos put up 15 points against them - the sixth player on the season to deliver double-digit fantasy points.
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2nd Most Pts to K
Sit 'em Jared Goff (LAR, QB)
Even though Jared Goff's matchup looks fantastic, it has just become too difficult to trust him. He should have put up a big game last week, yet he couldn't put up more than 15 points for the second straight week. If history is any indication, he may struggle in this one as well. The last time he faced the Seahawks in Week 10, he managed just 10 fantasy points.
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6th Most Pts to QB
Sit 'em Cam Newton (NE, QB)
The playbook on Newton has officially been exposed. The fact that the Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade shows just how dysfunctional this offense has become. Newton managed just 16 fantasy points when he last faced the Bills, and frankly, that may be his ceiling in this one.
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14th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, QB)
While he fared better in the second half of Monday night's game against the Bengals, it wasn't great. Big Ben finished with 170 yards, one touchdown, and a pick while losing their third straight game. It doesn't get any better for Big Ben in Week 16 as he'll face an Indy defense that has surrendered the 4th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
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4th Fewest Pts to QB
Sit 'em Todd Gurley (ATL, RB)
The last thing you want to hear if you have Todd Gurley is that Ito Smith will be the starting running back in Week 16, yet here we are. Gurley is finished. His role has diminished to the point that he was given just one carry last week. He's ranked 51st on FFN this week and shouldn't be anywhere near fantasy lineups.
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11th Most Pts to RB
Sit 'em James Conner (PIT, RB)
Ranked 37th this week on FFN is James Conner who missed last week's game against Cincy. Including the two games he didn't play, Conner has managed to top 10 fantasy points just once in the past six weeks. Add in a tough matchup with the Colts, and Conner becomes too difficult to trust - especially in the championship week.
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9th Fewest Pts to RB
Sit 'em Antonio Gibson (WAS, RB)
This is one to watch. Gibson returned to practice this week which is a good sign for him to play in Week 16, but he has grade 2 turf toe which typically takes several weeks to recover from. If he can continue to practice and tolerate the pain, he may move up the ranks from his current spot at #31, but this is more about risk in the last fantasy game of the year.
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11th Most Pts to RB
Sit 'em Tyler Boyd (CIN, WR)
It hasn't been a productive few weeks for Tyler Boyd. After getting ejected in Week 13, Boyd followed that up with just 43 yards the next week and a doughnut the week after. Now, the zero points came after Boyd's only target resulted in a concussion, but that's the concern here. Assuming he's cleared to play, he has a great matchup on paper. If Joe Burrow were under center, we'd feel better starting Boyd, but right now, he's a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
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8th Most Pts to WR
Sit 'em D.J. Chark (JAC, WR)
Even with Minshew mania back under center, Chark didn't return to fantasy relevance. He struggled last week and will likely struggle again this week against a Bears defense that has given up the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. He's ranked 41st this week on FFN making him a TD-dependent WR4.
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4th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Tim Patrick (DEN, WR)
For a while there, it looked like Tim Patrick was going to be a consistent option in this Drew Lock offense. It's obvious that Lock needs more time to mature into an NFL quarterback and that's going to hurt Patrick's fantasy value. He hasn't managed more than 4 targets or 44 yards receiving in his last four games. The matchup here is going to be difficult as the Chargers have given up the 9th-fewest fantasy points to receivers on the year.
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9th Fewest Pts to WR
Sit 'em Eric Ebron (PIT, TE)
How many fantasy owners needed a big game out of Ebron on Monday night? Unfortunately, he delivered a doughnut after getting hurt in Week 15. It looks like he may have avoided a serious injury and could suit up this week; however, the matchup is awful even for a healthy player. The Colts give up the 4th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
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4th Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Zach Ertz (PHI, TE)
Only two tight ends have scored 16 fantasy points or more against the Cowboys this year, and neither was playing second fiddle like Ertz is to Goeddert. The addition of Jalen Hurts under center hasn't meant much for either Ertz or Goeddert unfortunately. Ertz was once a fantasy stud, but he'll be better sitting on your bench for the championship.
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11th Fewest Pts to TE
Sit 'em Green Bay Packers (GB, DEF)
No other team has given up fewer fantasy points to Defense/Special Teams than the Titans. While the Packers have struggled to stop the run, they've been fairly solid keeping the passing yards down. They may struggle a bit against Ryan Tannehill and his receiving corp which has been on a hot streak as of late.
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Feweset Pts to DEF
Sit 'em Rodrigo Blankenship (IND, K)
Rodrigo Blankenship is the 3rd-best kicker in fantasy this season, but this may not be the game to start him. The Steelers have been very tough on kickers this year giving up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to them. Only two players have been able to put up double-digit points, but is Week 16 the week where you want to gamble on Blankenship being the third? We didn't think so.
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3rd Fewest Pts to K

Join the Discussion

Broc CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:34 am

Josh Jacobs or A.J. Brown for my flex? full PPR, thanks.
A.J. Brown has a pretty tough match up and Josh Jacobs is kind of up and down at this point I feel like.

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:21 pm

AJ Brown
Good luck!

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:37 am

brown

Broc CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:39 am

Also which D/ST would you play, Colts or Rams?
Thanks

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:21 pm

Rams

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:37 am

rams

TheBoan CommentedDec 24, 2020 6:14 am

Half ppr
WR/TE
WR/TE
FLEX
FLEX

Dobbins
Pollard
Waller
ScaryTerry
DJ Moore

Pick 4

Thanks!

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:28 pm

Dobbins, Waller, McLaurin, Moore

If Zeke plays, it's tough to trust the volume from Pollard. If Zeke sits, I'd start Pollard and maybe sit Moore.

Hopefully Dobbins sees his 5th-straight game with a TD.

Good luck!

Nerd CommentedDec 25, 2020 1:18 pm

Doesn't look like F1 is going to play so that makes it easier

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:38 am

dobbins, pollard, waller, moore

FloridaFloozie CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:23 pm

Seattle or Miami defense???

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 7:09 pm

Miami

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:38 am

seattle

Muscle man CommentedDec 24, 2020 12:52 pm

Need a WR standard scoring:
Antonio Brown, Rashard Higgins or Marquise Brown

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 7:10 pm

Antonio Brown

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:38 am

I think this is the week we see the old Brown

Banner2 CommentedDec 24, 2020 1:53 pm

Full PPR

Flex
Dobbins
Pollard
Countee

Defense
Chicago
Miami

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 7:11 pm

Dobbins (if Zeke doesn't play, then Pollard).

Chicago

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:39 am

agreed with nerd.

dobbins and chicago

TheBabysArm CommentedDec 24, 2020 3:11 pm

Is LeveonBell a viable pick this week? E Sanders or R Anderson?

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 7:04 pm

Yep and he's startable over those guys.

Good luck!

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:39 am

lev bell

marc's team CommentedDec 24, 2020 3:50 pm

Watson or Tannehill?

Nerd CommentedDec 24, 2020 7:08 pm

Watson

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:40 am

agreed with watson

IncomT65 CommentedDec 24, 2020 10:17 pm

Pick 1 Flex. Standard scoring.

L. Bell
Jeff Wilson
D. Henderson

TitansFan88 CommentedDec 24, 2020 10:43 pm

I'd say Bell or Wilson..Rams are gonna split backfield with Henderson and Brown

TitansFan88 CommentedDec 24, 2020 10:43 pm

Bell 1st

Nerd CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:29 am

No CEH - roll with Bell.

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:40 am

bell

Banner2 CommentedDec 24, 2020 10:33 pm

PPR

Hurts
Tannehill
Mayfield

Nerd CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:35 am

Hurts

mrock CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:40 am

hurts definitely

TitansFan88 CommentedDec 24, 2020 10:44 pm

Hurts will do his thing,However if the Jets can stop the rushing attack ..go with Mayfield..Check weather

Hockey10 CommentedDec 25, 2020 11:57 am

Emmanuel sanders or T.Y Hilton??

Nerd CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:30 am

Didn't get to this one in time. Which way did you end up going?

Hockey10 CommentedDec 27, 2020 9:55 am

Ended up going with Sanders. But now need to pick between Russel Gage or Ty Hilton??

Nerd CommentedDec 27, 2020 11:04 am

Close but perhaps Hilton

tramz18 CommentedDec 25, 2020 2:59 pm

I need 1 for flex in full PPR- TY Hilton vs tough Pitt defense or Gage vs KC with Julio out? I also have Gibson. Which of the 2 WR would you go with and then would you start A.Gibson over both if he's active? Thanks

Nerd CommentedDec 26, 2020 9:34 am

Tough D but probably still give the nod to Hilton.

I don't know how Gibson's handling the turf toe. Limited practices all week making him a game-time decision. It depends upon your tolerance for risk. If he plays and has the same workload, it's a great matchup. I think Hilton is probably safer based upon what we know right now.

EaglesPete CommentedDec 26, 2020 4:04 pm

1/2 PPR MIles Gaskin or David Johnson

Nerd CommentedDec 26, 2020 6:54 pm

David Johnson

Banner2 CommentedDec 26, 2020 6:47 pm

Help

Rasheed Higgins out for CoVid

Full PPR
Cooks
Coutee
Marvin Hall as he is the only starting WR left for the Browns

Hockey10 CommentedDec 27, 2020 10:58 am

Need help. Half ppr. Pick one. Marvin Hall, Russel Gage, T.Y Hilton? Thanks

Nerd CommentedDec 27, 2020 11:04 am

Hilton

Valentine85 CommentedDec 27, 2020 12:40 pm

Texans Def. or Rams Def. ??

Valentine85 CommentedDec 27, 2020 12:58 pm

Help !?


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